Friday, November 7, 2008

What now Sarah ??

One thing that's clear from post-election examination is that the Republican Party just aligned itself Rightwards, and with a Christianist bent. The Republican ticket became a Palin/McCain ticket, the moment she was selected, and McCain wouldn't have come anywhere this close to Barack without her help in rallying the base.

And she did: 57.2 Million people voted for McCain, more than voted for Bush in the 2000 elections (although W got 62 million in the 2004 elections). To me, 57.2 million voters is a solid base, that in the event of voter dropoff, can win her a Presidential election. If the McCain concession speech is anything to go by, all those people are strongly behind her.

Some commentators have been making the Nixon/Palin comparison, correctly noting that Nixon was considered to be somewhat of a joke in 1962. Her best bet, imho is to position herself for a run in 2016, and to take the intervening time to take control of the Republican Party. However, her success depends on a few things:
  1. Making sure that Alaska becomes a well run state, and distance herself from the incompetence and fiscal imprudence of the Bush administration.
  2. Make sure her state administration becomes a paragon of virtue, and clean up ethically. Caesar's wife, & all that.
  3. Develop a coherent policy portfolio, including Energy, Immigration and the Economy. If I were her I'd read up on the Austrian school (like Ron Paul), and use that as the basis of an economic policy.
  4. Stay in the public eye, at least to the base. That means going on Rush and the late night shows, and trying to cultivate an image of intelligence.
  5. Build a team to start her 2016 campaign now, and make sure those people are loyal to her, and not to others. McCain's big mistake, in this campaign, was hiring Rove's protege Schmitt, and in losing control of his own campaign. If Obama has demonstrated anything in this campaign it's the need for the candidate to be clearly in charge, and to drive the strategy and major tactical decisions of the campaign. Sarah Palin will need to be 1/3 Mother Theresa, 1/3 Feynmann and 1/3 Napoleon.
Even in the age of Youtube, rehabilitation is possible: look at Hilary Clinton's revitalization from the election. In any case, Sarah Palin's story is not over, by any stretch of the imagination. And that should be a scary prospect to anyone who is not a Roller.

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