Saturday, July 2, 2011

A proposal to Derek Fisher and the NBPA

In the lockout, I find myself firmly on the side of the players. It's clear that this dispute is as much about class, in the American sense, as it is about money, which is to say it's really the same old struggle over the balance of power between employers and employees.

Now, the NBPA has one big stick with which to hit the owners, and that's the stars.

If I were Derek Fisher, I would try to put together a mini league under the following conditions:
  1. Eight teams, consisting of the NBA's best 80 or 96 players
  2. Make Oscar Robertson or Bill Russell the commissioner. Important to have the old-time union connection.
  3. Allow for the desire of some players to team with others (up to 3 players on a team), then designate a captain for each team.
  4. Have a selection event, kind of like a draft, where the captains select other teammates, in round-robin fashion
  5. Play a mix of FIBA/NBA rules (4, ten minute quarters, 22ft 3pt line, etc...)
  6. 3 pts for a win, 2 for an overtime win, 1 for an overtime loss
  7. Each team plays each other 1,2,3 or 4 times depending on the desired length of the season
  8. Most points wins the tournament. Tiebreakers on points differential, points scored, etc...
  9. Top four teams go into a semis/finals best of 3/5 playoff for the title
  10. Make the finals a big prize money competition.
Revenue is simple:
  1. Set the tournament somewhere like Las Vegas, or any area that has multiple 10k seat arenas
  2. Let the hotels accommodate the players as sponsorship in kind.
  3. Ticket sales.
  4. Let the NBPA sell the tv rights worldwide (who wouldn't want to see Kobe & Nash on the same team?)
  5. Let the NPBA sell video game rights.
  6. Offer one of the major networks Christmas Day games.
  7. Let the NBPA sell jersey/merchandising rights worldwide
  8. Sponsorship, jersey advertising
Where does the money go?
  1. A big chunk of money goes to the active players, but 50% to the NBPA's general fund
Why would there be an audience?
  1. Most of the players will be the NBA's stars, so this would be like an all-star tournament
  2. Short season. If every team played each other 4 times, that would equate to a 28 game regular season. Include the playoffs, the whole thing could be done in a short 3 month season.
  3. More exciting basketball
  4. Rebel league factor
Why would the stars go for this?
  1. Loyalty to the union
  2. A chance to play with other stars.
  3. Better level of basketball than in Europe
  4. A chance to stay in the public eye. Makes sponsorships valuable.
  5. Can make not great, but decent money
  6. reduced travel.
I should point out, that with the current economy, Las Vegas could use a boost like this, especially if teams played back to back on Saturday and Sunday (midweek games Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday). Plus the chance to stick it to David Stern, who has refused to allow an NBA team to relocate to Vegas is hard to resist. And with a short 28 game season, it would be possible to have two tournaments per year, perhaps in different cities. Even shorter seasons (14 & 21 games) open up the possibility of staging this tournament abroad.

The issue with such a league for the players is revenue, and how much such a venture could generate.

In 2010, NBA merchandising sales across the US and Canada alone hit $1.93 billion, and you can easily double that when taking the rest of the world into account. Most jersey sales are for the top 25 or so players in the league, and most if not all those players would participate in a rebel league. It goes without saying, that this revenue stream comes at the expense of the NBA, as people buy the new, more exciting, rebel merchandising over the existing official wares.

So, in my mind, $250 million per tournament is within easy reach when one takes into account all the sources of revenue, and I don't think it's too far fetched to think that it might hit $500 million, or even a $1 billion. And each tournament offers a new opportunity for merchandising sales, as players change teams, etc...

Bottom line is that kind of revenue would definitely put pressure on the owners to settle, as the more successful the rebel league becomes, the more the NBA loses value.

more thoughts:
part ii: http://plinytheelder.blogspot.com/2011/07/proposal-to-derek-fisher-and-nbpa-part.html
part iii: http://plinytheelder.blogspot.com/2011/07/proposal-to-derek-fisher-and-nbpa-part_02.html

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